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Velika depresija je počela?!?
by Kermit 4/9/2016, 11:48
http://www.internationalman.com/articles/comparing-the-1930s-and-today
Kermit-
Posts : 26479
2014-04-17
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by Kermit 4/9/2016, 11:49
[size=36]Comparing the 1930s and Today[/size]
by Doug Casey
You've heard the axiom "History repeats itself." It does, but never in exactly the same way. To apply the lessons of the past, we must understand the differences of the present.
During the American Revolution, the British came prepared to fight a successful war—but against a European army. Their formations, which gave them devastating firepower, and their red coats, which emphasized their numbers, proved the exact opposite of the tactics needed to fight a guerrilla war.
Before World War I, generals still saw the cavalry as the flower of their armies. Of course, the horse soldiers proved worse than useless in the trenches.
Before World War II, in anticipation of a German attack, the French built the "impenetrable" Maginot Line. History repeated itself and the attack came, but not in the way they expected. Their preparations were useless because the Germans didn't attempt to penetrate it; they simply went around it, and France was defeated.
The generals don't prepare for the last war out of perversity or stupidity, but rather because past experience is all they have to go by. Most of them simply don't know how to interpret that experience. They are correct in preparing for another war but wrong in relying upon what worked in the last one.
Investors, unfortunately, seem to make the same mistakes in marshaling their resources as do the generals. If the last 30 years have been prosperous, they base their actions on more prosperity. Talk of a depression isn't real to them because things are, in fact, so different from the 1930s. To most people, a depression means '30s-style conditions, and since they don't see that, they can't imagine a depression. That's because they know what the last depression waslike, but they don't know what one is. It's hard to visualize something you don't understand.
Some of them who are a bit more clever might see an end to prosperity and the start of a depression but—although they're going to be a lot better off than most—they're probably looking for this depression to be like the last one.
Although nobody can predict with absolute certainty what this depression will be like, you can be fairly well-assured it won't be an instant replay of the last one. But just because things will be different doesn't mean you have to be taken by surprise.
To define the likely differences between this depression and the last one, it's helpful to compare the situation today to that in the early 1930s. The results aren't very reassuring.
by Doug Casey
You've heard the axiom "History repeats itself." It does, but never in exactly the same way. To apply the lessons of the past, we must understand the differences of the present.
During the American Revolution, the British came prepared to fight a successful war—but against a European army. Their formations, which gave them devastating firepower, and their red coats, which emphasized their numbers, proved the exact opposite of the tactics needed to fight a guerrilla war.
Before World War I, generals still saw the cavalry as the flower of their armies. Of course, the horse soldiers proved worse than useless in the trenches.
Before World War II, in anticipation of a German attack, the French built the "impenetrable" Maginot Line. History repeated itself and the attack came, but not in the way they expected. Their preparations were useless because the Germans didn't attempt to penetrate it; they simply went around it, and France was defeated.
The generals don't prepare for the last war out of perversity or stupidity, but rather because past experience is all they have to go by. Most of them simply don't know how to interpret that experience. They are correct in preparing for another war but wrong in relying upon what worked in the last one.
Investors, unfortunately, seem to make the same mistakes in marshaling their resources as do the generals. If the last 30 years have been prosperous, they base their actions on more prosperity. Talk of a depression isn't real to them because things are, in fact, so different from the 1930s. To most people, a depression means '30s-style conditions, and since they don't see that, they can't imagine a depression. That's because they know what the last depression waslike, but they don't know what one is. It's hard to visualize something you don't understand.
Some of them who are a bit more clever might see an end to prosperity and the start of a depression but—although they're going to be a lot better off than most—they're probably looking for this depression to be like the last one.
Although nobody can predict with absolute certainty what this depression will be like, you can be fairly well-assured it won't be an instant replay of the last one. But just because things will be different doesn't mean you have to be taken by surprise.
To define the likely differences between this depression and the last one, it's helpful to compare the situation today to that in the early 1930s. The results aren't very reassuring.
Kermit-
Posts : 26479
2014-04-17
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by Kermit 4/9/2016, 11:49
So much for the differences. The crucial, obvious, and most important similarity, however, is that most people's standard of living will fall dramatically.
The Greater Depression has started. Most people don't know it because they can neither confront the thought nor understand the differences between this one and the last.
As a climax approaches, many of the things that you've built your life around in the past are going to change and change radically. The ability to adjust to new conditions is the sign of a psychologically healthy person.
Look for the opportunity side of the crisis. The Chinese symbol for "crisis" is a combination of two other symbols - one for danger and one for opportunity.
The dangers that society will face in the years ahead are regrettable, but there's no point in allowing anxiety, frustration, or apathy to overcome you. Face the future with courage, curiosity, and optimism rather than fear. You can be a winner, and if you plan carefully, you will be. The great period of change will give you a chance to regain control of your destiny. And that in itself is the single most important thing in life. This depression can give you that opportunity; it's one of the many ways the Greater Depression can be a very good thing for both you as an individual and society as a whole.
The Greater Depression has started. Most people don't know it because they can neither confront the thought nor understand the differences between this one and the last.
As a climax approaches, many of the things that you've built your life around in the past are going to change and change radically. The ability to adjust to new conditions is the sign of a psychologically healthy person.
Look for the opportunity side of the crisis. The Chinese symbol for "crisis" is a combination of two other symbols - one for danger and one for opportunity.
The dangers that society will face in the years ahead are regrettable, but there's no point in allowing anxiety, frustration, or apathy to overcome you. Face the future with courage, curiosity, and optimism rather than fear. You can be a winner, and if you plan carefully, you will be. The great period of change will give you a chance to regain control of your destiny. And that in itself is the single most important thing in life. This depression can give you that opportunity; it's one of the many ways the Greater Depression can be a very good thing for both you as an individual and society as a whole.
Kermit-
Posts : 26479
2014-04-17
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by crvenkasti 4/9/2016, 13:14
asilovski wrote:The great period of change will give you a chance to regain control of your destiny. And that in itself is the single most important thing in life.
Ali ja ne želim pobjeđivati niti kontrolirati. Ne želim ništa mijenjati. Meni je moj sadašnji život dobar.
crvenkasti-
Posts : 28738
2014-04-17
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by Guest 4/9/2016, 13:20
Dok god države imaju političku volju, naglasak na volju, voditi deficit, do velike depresije poput te iz 1930ih ne može doći.
To je bila poruka iz 2008. kad su dopustili propast Lehmana, kako bi uživo demonstrirali koju moć ima država i centralna banka.
To je bila poruka iz 2008. kad su dopustili propast Lehmana, kako bi uživo demonstrirali koju moć ima država i centralna banka.
Guest- Guest
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by aben 4/9/2016, 13:31
ako države odjebu deficite i prepuste odlučivanje ljudima, depresije neće biti.
veliku depresiju je izazvala država, a produbila ju je država.
milton i ana su je opisali a bernanke in je prizno da su u pravu:
Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again.
veliku depresiju je izazvala država, a produbila ju je država.
milton i ana su je opisali a bernanke in je prizno da su u pravu:
Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again.
_________________
Insofar as it is educational, it is not compulsory;
And insofar as it is compulsory, it is not educational
aben- Posts : 35459
2014-04-16
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by crvenkasti 4/9/2016, 13:32
deda na aparatima wrote:Dok god države imaju političku volju, naglasak na volju, voditi deficit, do velike depresije poput te iz 1930ih ne može doći.
To je bila poruka iz 2008. kad su dopustili propast Lehmana, kako bi uživo demonstrirali koju moć ima država i centralna banka.
Državama ne upravljaju političari, nego moćni financijski centri.
2008. su se sukobili jedni financijski moćnici protiv drugih.
Deficite država oni kontroliraju dok im se to isplati tj. dok zarađuju.
crvenkasti-
Posts : 28738
2014-04-17
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by aben 4/9/2016, 13:35
pa ča?crvenkasti wrote:
Državama ne upravljaju političari, nego moćni financijski centri.
misliš ako bi političari imali provu moć, da bi bilo drukčije?
to je jedun od nojrezistentnijih mitova- da ako stavimo na vlost poštene ljude, da će biti dobro. a ne će.
_________________
Insofar as it is educational, it is not compulsory;
And insofar as it is compulsory, it is not educational
aben- Posts : 35459
2014-04-16
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by Guest 4/9/2016, 13:37
aben wrote:
milton i ana su je opisali a bernanke in je prizno da su u pravu:
Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again.
Samo ti ne shvaćaš da Bernanke ne misli na to na što ti misliš. Bernanke kaže da se to više neće dogoditi jer će sad svaki put država i centralna banka intervenirati. Neće dopustiti da sve propadne i mirno gledati kako su to učinili 30ih.
2008. je bila demonstracija moći federalne države i centralne banke, uz malo matematike zaustavili su recesiju i pokrenuli oporavak.
Guest- Guest
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by aben 4/9/2016, 13:38
we did it. fed did it.deda na aparatima wrote:aben wrote:
milton i ana su je opisali a bernanke in je prizno da su u pravu:
Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again.
Samo ti ne shvaćaš da Bernanke ne misli na to na što ti misliš. Bernanke kaže da se to više neće dogoditi jer će sad svaki put država i centralna banka intervenirati. Neće dopustiti da sve propadne i mirno gledati kako su to učinili 30ih.
2008. je bila demonstracija moći federalne države i centralne banke, uz malo matematike zaustavili su recesiju i pokrenuli oporavak.
and they did do it again.
_________________
Insofar as it is educational, it is not compulsory;
And insofar as it is compulsory, it is not educational
aben- Posts : 35459
2014-04-16
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by Guest 4/9/2016, 13:39
crvenkasti wrote:
Državama ne upravljaju političari, nego moćni financijski centri.
2008. su se sukobili jedni financijski moćnici protiv drugih.
Deficite država oni kontroliraju dok im se to isplati tj. dok zarađuju.
Deficit i fiskalnu politiku kontroliraju političari, zato je Centralna banka neovisna, kako neuki i ne baš bistri ne bi s obije noge mogli stati na kočnicu ili na gas.
Guest- Guest
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by crvenkasti 4/9/2016, 13:45
aben wrote:pa ča?crvenkasti wrote:
Državama ne upravljaju političari, nego moćni financijski centri.
misliš ako bi političari imali provu moć, da bi bilo drukčije?
to je jedun od nojrezistentnijih mitova- da ako stavimo na vlost poštene ljude, da će biti dobro. a ne će.
Najveća je zabluda da je kapital najbolji gospodar i da tržište samo po sebi omogućuje razvoj i prosperitet.
Najveći skokovi u razvoju tehnologije, znanosti itd. su se listom svi dogodili u vrijeme trajanja ratova.
U to vrijeme nema tržišta i vlada ratna ekonomija.
Upravlja se iz centra.
Lova se bez pitanja ulaže velike znanstvene projekte za koje u mirnodopsko vrijeme nema investitora.
Nijemci su u 2-3 ratne godine izmislili mlazni avion, rakete sposobne za let u svemir, malo im je falilo i atomsku bombu.
crvenkasti-
Posts : 28738
2014-04-17
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by aben 4/9/2016, 13:46
As everyone here knows, in their Monetary History Friedman and Schwartz made the case that the economic collapse of 1929-33 was the product of the nation's monetary mechanism gone wrong.
_________________
Insofar as it is educational, it is not compulsory;
And insofar as it is compulsory, it is not educational
aben- Posts : 35459
2014-04-16
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by aben 4/9/2016, 13:47
crvenkasti wrote:aben wrote:pa ča?crvenkasti wrote:
Državama ne upravljaju političari, nego moćni financijski centri.
misliš ako bi političari imali provu moć, da bi bilo drukčije?
to je jedun od nojrezistentnijih mitova- da ako stavimo na vlost poštene ljude, da će biti dobro. a ne će.
Najveća je zabluda da je kapital najbolji gospodar i da tržište samo po sebi omogućuje razvoj i prosperitet.
Najveći skokovi u razvoju tehnologije, znanosti itd. su se listom svi dogodili u vrijeme trajanja ratova.
U to vrijeme nema tržišta i vlada ratna ekonomija.
Upravlja se iz centra.
Lova se bez pitanja ulaže velike znanstvene projekte za koje u mirnodopsko vrijeme nema investitora.
Nijemci su u 2-3 ratne godine izmislili mlazni avion, rakete sposobne za let u svemir, malo im je falilo i atomsku bombu.
_________________
Insofar as it is educational, it is not compulsory;
And insofar as it is compulsory, it is not educational
aben- Posts : 35459
2014-04-16
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by crvenkasti 4/9/2016, 13:48
deda na aparatima wrote:crvenkasti wrote:
Državama ne upravljaju političari, nego moćni financijski centri.
2008. su se sukobili jedni financijski moćnici protiv drugih.
Deficite država oni kontroliraju dok im se to isplati tj. dok zarađuju.
Deficit i fiskalnu politiku kontroliraju političari, zato je Centralna banka neovisna, kako neuki i ne baš bistri ne bi s obije noge mogli stati na kočnicu ili na gas.
Je li američki FED neovisan i tko mu je vlasnik?
crvenkasti-
Posts : 28738
2014-04-17
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by aben 4/9/2016, 13:53
da nema centralne banke, unda ne bi postojala ni opasnost od nebistrih.deda na aparatima wrote:crvenkasti wrote:
Državama ne upravljaju političari, nego moćni financijski centri.
2008. su se sukobili jedni financijski moćnici protiv drugih.
Deficite država oni kontroliraju dok im se to isplati tj. dok zarađuju.
Deficit i fiskalnu politiku kontroliraju političari, zato je Centralna banka neovisna, kako neuki i ne baš bistri ne bi s obije noge mogli stati na kočnicu ili na gas.
_________________
Insofar as it is educational, it is not compulsory;
And insofar as it is compulsory, it is not educational
aben- Posts : 35459
2014-04-16
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by Guest 4/9/2016, 13:53
crvenkasti wrote:
Je li američki FED neovisan i tko mu je vlasnik?
U doba mira je neovisan, u slučaju rata dolazi pod direktnu upravu kongresa.
Guest- Guest
Re: Velika depresija je počela?!?
by crvenkasti 4/9/2016, 14:10
deda na aparatima wrote:crvenkasti wrote:
Je li američki FED neovisan i tko mu je vlasnik?
U doba mira je neovisan, u slučaju rata dolazi pod direktnu upravu kongresa.
FED je moćna grupa financijskih silnika koja upravlja svim monetarnim i financijskim poslovima u USA.
Dakle, privatna centralna banka!
FED štampa dolare, a američka vlada posuđuje novac od njih! I to uz kamatu 3%.
To je odmah nacionalni dug.
Te dolare vlada posuđuje komercijalnim bankama s kamatom 5%.
Banke posuđuju te dolare firmama i građanima uz kamatu 7-8%.
Svi su svima dužni, a novce je naštampao FED i oni najviše zarađuju, a nisu napraviili ništa.
crvenkasti-
Posts : 28738
2014-04-17
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