Exit, bre: Italija sljedeća

Brexit analysis: Italy may be the next domino to fall

The country has a decisive referendum in October, a gamble which is not less risky than the Brexit vote

about 2 hours ago
Wolfgang Munchau

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Italian Premier Matteo Renzi’s referendum onconstitutional reforms is a gamble which is no less risky than David Cameron did.



 
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The UK’s vote to leave the EU will not only break the ties between the UK and the bloc, and probably between Scotland and England - it has the potential to destroy the euro zone. This is not the issue at the forefront of people’s minds right now. But it is potentially the biggest impact of all. I am convinced Brexit’s consequences will be neutral to moderately negative for the UK but devastating for the EU.
The main problem is not other countries wanting to hold EU referendums. The problem is more acute. The next referendum to be held in the EU takes place in Italy in October. It is not about the union but about Matteo Renzi’s constitutional reforms. The Italian prime minister is taking a gamble which is no less risky than [url=http://www.irishtimes.com/search/search-7.1213540?tag_person=David cameron&article=true]David Cameron[/url] did.
Mr Renzi is asking the Italians to agree a number of reforms to streamline their political system. The proposals are sensible. But Italians view the referendum as an opportunity for a midterm anti-government vote. Mr Renzi promised he would resign if he loses. If he does, it will have been a monumental error of judgment on the scale of Mr Cameron’s.
Opinion polls have been showing a small lead for Yes but they are likely to be as unreliable as those in the UK. My Italian friends are telling me Mr Renzi may well lose, in which case he would either resign immediately or call elections in early 2017.
Reasons for concern
The implications of Brexit for Italy are extremely troubling for three reasons. First, consider the economic impact. Italy’s economy has been in a weak recovery after a long recession. The British vote will have a significant effect on growth in the euro zone. But for Italy this means a reversion to a growth rate to below 1 per cent or worse.
Second, watch out for the Italian banks, which are woefully undercapitalised. A recent scheme to recapitalise the system has been a disappointment. The only options left to save it are a programme under the European Stability Mechanism, the rescue umbrella, which Mr Renzi will surely resist, or a break with a long list of EU rules on competition policy and bank bailouts.
Third, and most important, the political impact of a lost referendum will be disastrous. Either Mr Renzi keeps his promise to resign or he limps on to the next election. The technical details of the scenario that would then prevail are complex but the party most likely to benefit is the populist anti-establishment Five Star Movement. Beppe Grillo, its leader, last week reiterated his call for a referendum on Italy’s membership of the euro zone. As the results of the recent mayoral elections in Rome and Turin have shown, Mr Grillo’s party should not be underestimated.
Italian politics
The political dynamic in Italy is not much different from the one in the UK. The electorate is in an insurrectionary mood. The country has had virtually no productivity growth since it joined the euro in 1999. The Italian political establishment has until recently been as dismissive of its chances of losing the referendum as the British establishment was until Friday morning. They are still dismissive of the chances of a Five Star victory - and will be until the moment it happens.
In my view, that outcome is at least as probable as Mr Renzi emerging victorious from this mess. The Italian public has reasons to demand fundamental change. Unlike in the UK, unemployment there is high. Mr Renzi’s own administration has failed to break with corruption scandals and, most important of all, has failed to sort out the country’s economy.
A Pew Research Center poll on attitudes towards European integration in the largest member states suggests that the Italians and the Greeks view the EU’s economic governance most negatively. I am not surprised.
Euro zone threat
Nor am I surprised that people are beginning to blame the euro for the economic problems. An Italian exit from the single currency would trigger the total collapse of the eurozone within a very short period.
It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the [url=http://www.irishtimes.com/search/search-7.1213540?tag_company=Lehman brothers&article=true]Lehman Brothers[/url] bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash. But my sense is that those who would advocate an Italian departure might even relish bringing down the whole house.
To prevent such a calamity, EU leaders should seriously consider doing what they have failed to do since 2008: resolve the union’s multiple crises rather than muddle through. And that will have to involve a plan for the political union of the eurozone countries.
Britain is not the cause for any of this. The eurozone and its appallingly weak leaders are to blame. But Brexit may well be the trigger.

Talijani su jako nesretni u uniji, a pogotovo od ulaska u monetarnu uniju. Oni bi zaista prvi mogli slijedit Brite.

EU će opstat, u to ne treba sumnjat. Reformirat bi se morala u federaciju barem tipa USA,
sa zajedničkom vanjskom politikom i s jakom vojskom. Samo jaka ekonomija danas ne jamči opstanak...Obrnuto može, što vidimo na primjeru Rusije.

Jel se pripremaš za doček Volođe?

Eva wrote:Jel se pripremaš za doček Volođe?

To je posa za naše izviđače.

Si naučil text Kaćuše?

Eva wrote:Si naučil text Kaćuše?

Šče neumerla Ukrajini ni slava ni volja,
šče nam bratja, Ukrajinci, usmihnetsja dolja...

Ma koja Ukrajina. To američka prćija ala Kosova. Lubenica u Kijevu košta 150 kuna. To im i je dala američka politika.

Zhinit naši voriženki, jak rosa na sonci,
zapanujem i mi bratja u naši storoci...

Eva wrote:Talijani su jako nesretni u uniji, a pogotovo od ulaska u monetarnu uniju. Oni bi zaista prvi mogli slijedit Brite.

Zašto bi bili nesretni zbog monetarne unije, koja je razlika između Lire fiksirane na Njemačku Marku kako su imali ranije, i Eura?

Očito ljudi kad nemaju nešto normalno za reći počnu pričati idijotske gluposti.

Hrvatska isto ima tečaj Kune fiksno vezan za Euro, sutra kad uvede EUR umjesto Kune neće biti nikakve razlike.

deda hipster wrote:

Eva wrote:Talijani su jako nesretni u uniji, a pogotovo od ulaska u monetarnu uniju. Oni bi zaista prvi mogli slijedit Brite.

Zašto bi bili nesretni zbog monetarne unije, koja je razlika između Lire fiksirane na Njemačku Marku kako su imali ranije, i Eura?

Očito ljudi kad nemaju nešto normalno za reći počnu pričati idijotske gluposti.

Hrvatska isto ima tečaj Kune fiksno vezan za Euro, sutra kad uvede EUR umjesto Kune neće biti nikakve razlike.

Zato kaj je cijena cipela otišla sa 100 k lira na 100 ojera. Simple as that.

Na kraju će EU biti svedena na Njemačku,Hrvatsku,Bugarsku,Litvu,Estoniju i Latviju.

Ero wrote:EU će opstat, u to ne treba sumnjat. Reformirat bi se morala u federaciju barem tipa USA,
sa zajedničkom vanjskom politikom i s jakom vojskom. Samo jaka ekonomija danas ne jamči opstanak...Obrnuto može, što vidimo na primjeru Rusije.

Zajednička vanjska ali i druge politike su glavni problem EU ali i glavni razlog "Brexit"-a, EU treba biti o zajedničkom tržištu i to je to.

Upravo je to "zajedničko tržište" ono što će se obiti u glavu EU.

To tržište uništava male proizvođače i sitne trgovce.

jastreb wrote:Upravo je to "zajedničko tržište" ono što će se obiti u glavu EU.

To tržište uništava male proizvođače i sitne trgovce.

hrvatska od kada je ušla u eu , industrijski izvoz raste 10% godišnje

Brain32 wrote:

Ero wrote:EU će opstat, u to ne treba sumnjat. Reformirat bi se morala u federaciju barem tipa USA,
sa zajedničkom vanjskom politikom i s jakom vojskom. Samo jaka ekonomija danas ne jamči opstanak...Obrnuto može, što vidimo na primjeru Rusije.

Zajednička vanjska ali i druge politike su glavni problem EU ali i glavni razlog "Brexit"-a, EU treba biti o zajedničkom tržištu i to je to.

Ako nije popraćeno snažnom vojskom i vanjskom politikom-ništa od toga.

preko_vode_do_slobode wrote:

jastreb wrote:Upravo je to "zajedničko tržište" ono što će se obiti u glavu EU.

To tržište uništava male proizvođače i sitne trgovce.

hrvatska od kada je ušla u eu , industrijski izvoz raste 10% godišnje

nesto malo vise...oko 11,6 %

Ero wrote:

Brain32 wrote:

Ero wrote:EU će opstat, u to ne treba sumnjat. Reformirat bi se morala u federaciju barem tipa USA,
sa zajedničkom vanjskom politikom i s jakom vojskom. Samo jaka ekonomija danas ne jamči opstanak...Obrnuto može, što vidimo na primjeru Rusije.

Zajednička vanjska ali i druge politike su glavni problem EU ali i glavni razlog "Brexit"-a, EU treba biti o zajedničkom tržištu i to je to.

Ako nije popraćeno snažnom vojskom i vanjskom politikom-ništa od toga.

Za bit američke kujice imamo NATO kao i za vanjsku politiku koja uništava ideju slobodnog tržišta, demografiju Europe i svakim je danom sve više destabilizirajući faktor u svijetu.

Brain32 wrote:

Ero wrote:

Brain32 wrote:

Ero wrote:EU će opstat, u to ne treba sumnjat. Reformirat bi se morala u federaciju barem tipa USA,
sa zajedničkom vanjskom politikom i s jakom vojskom. Samo jaka ekonomija danas ne jamči opstanak...Obrnuto može, što vidimo na primjeru Rusije.

Zajednička vanjska ali i druge politike su glavni problem EU ali i glavni razlog "Brexit"-a, EU treba biti o zajedničkom tržištu i to je to.

Ako nije popraćeno snažnom vojskom i vanjskom politikom-ništa od toga.

Za bit američke kujice imamo NATO kao i za vanjsku politiku koja uništava ideju slobodnog tržišta, demografiju Europe i svakim je danom sve više destabilizirajući faktor u svijetu.

tako je brain32.

Dok je god EU , Američka vanjsko-politička, vojna kujica, do tada sam da države budu stamostalnije i nikakva federacija ne dolazi u obzir.
Onoga dana kada EU ne bude američka/niti ruska niti ičija kujica, nego samostalna super sila koja se neće trpati arapima, onda možemo zajedno i svemir osvajati nije problem.

preko_vode_do_slobode wrote:

jastreb wrote:Upravo je to "zajedničko tržište" ono što će se obiti u glavu EU.

To tržište uništava male proizvođače i sitne trgovce.

hrvatska od kada je ušla u eu , industrijski izvoz raste 10% godišnje

Možda i raste,ali se penje sa niskih grana.