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Fijasko stoljeća
by Trinity 26/3/2020, 23:36
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
[size=80]The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.[/size]
At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.
Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns may be bearable. How long, though, should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated? How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm?
[size=80]The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.[/size]
At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.
Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns may be bearable. How long, though, should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated? How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm?
Trinity-
Posts : 12923
2014-04-17
Re: Fijasko stoljeća
by Trinity 26/3/2020, 23:36
This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.
Trinity-
Posts : 12923
2014-04-17
Re: Fijasko stoljeća
by Trinity 26/3/2020, 23:38
That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.
Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes. In fact, such “mild” coronaviruses infect tens of millions of people every year, and account for 3% to 11% of those hospitalized in the U.S. with lower respiratory infections each winter.
These “mild” coronaviruses may be implicated in several thousands of deaths every year worldwide, though the vast majority of them are not documented with precise testing. Instead, they are lost as noise among 60 million deaths from various causes every year.
Although successful surveillance systems have long existed for influenza, the disease is confirmed by a laboratory in a tiny minority of cases. In the U.S., for example, so far this season 1,073,976 specimens have been tested and 222,552 (20.7%) have tested positive for influenza. In the same period, the estimated number of influenza-like illnesses is between 36,000,000 and 51,000,000, with an estimated 22,000 to 55,000 flu deaths.
Note the uncertainty about influenza-like illness deaths: a 2.5-fold range, corresponding to tens of thousands of deaths. Every year, some of these deaths are due to influenza and some to other viruses, like common-cold coronaviruses.
In an autopsy series that tested for respiratory viruses in specimens from 57 elderly persons who died during the 2016 to 2017 influenza season, influenza viruses were detected in 18% of the specimens, while any kind of respiratory virus was found in 47%. In some people who die from viral respiratory pathogens, more than one virus is found upon autopsy and bacteria are often superimposed. A positive test for coronavirus does not mean necessarily that this virus is always primarily responsible for a patient’s demise.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/?fbclid=IwAR2PadZHk69Xy2240HbrFTKLWmQ5FptMIDAX2UVxfBqnfNWVpujR5WaMBxQ
Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes. In fact, such “mild” coronaviruses infect tens of millions of people every year, and account for 3% to 11% of those hospitalized in the U.S. with lower respiratory infections each winter.
These “mild” coronaviruses may be implicated in several thousands of deaths every year worldwide, though the vast majority of them are not documented with precise testing. Instead, they are lost as noise among 60 million deaths from various causes every year.
Although successful surveillance systems have long existed for influenza, the disease is confirmed by a laboratory in a tiny minority of cases. In the U.S., for example, so far this season 1,073,976 specimens have been tested and 222,552 (20.7%) have tested positive for influenza. In the same period, the estimated number of influenza-like illnesses is between 36,000,000 and 51,000,000, with an estimated 22,000 to 55,000 flu deaths.
Note the uncertainty about influenza-like illness deaths: a 2.5-fold range, corresponding to tens of thousands of deaths. Every year, some of these deaths are due to influenza and some to other viruses, like common-cold coronaviruses.
In an autopsy series that tested for respiratory viruses in specimens from 57 elderly persons who died during the 2016 to 2017 influenza season, influenza viruses were detected in 18% of the specimens, while any kind of respiratory virus was found in 47%. In some people who die from viral respiratory pathogens, more than one virus is found upon autopsy and bacteria are often superimposed. A positive test for coronavirus does not mean necessarily that this virus is always primarily responsible for a patient’s demise.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/?fbclid=IwAR2PadZHk69Xy2240HbrFTKLWmQ5FptMIDAX2UVxfBqnfNWVpujR5WaMBxQ
Trinity-
Posts : 12923
2014-04-17
Re: Fijasko stoljeća
by T. 26/3/2020, 23:43
Đabe ti je...
Mjeru su tu i moraju se poštivati...
Radi od kuće ili odmaraj kao svi normalni ljudi...
Mjeru su tu i moraju se poštivati...
Radi od kuće ili odmaraj kao svi normalni ljudi...
_________________
T.- Posts : 17078
2014-04-14
Age : 83
Re: Fijasko stoljeća
by AssadNaPodmornici 26/3/2020, 23:47
T. wrote:Đabe ti je...
Mjeru su tu i moraju se poštivati...
Radi od kuće ili odmaraj kao svi normalni ljudi...
meni prvo bio žestoki stres, ali sada kada sam razmislio.. ovo odlična prilika za učenje nekih novih vještina, plus skoro svaki dan trčim/pumpam skelkove na otvorenom (hahah karantena my ass) ..taman do 1.5 ću se odmorit kao čovik..
na kraju ćemo imati i solidnu sezonu, jer napisao sam u par drugih postova, do 1.5 će skužit da je najbolje ili preći na švedski model ili sve odjebati, i onda će krenuti i turistička sezona itd.. malo će kasniti ali opet će biti OK
AssadNaPodmornici- Posts : 20871
2018-06-14
Re: Fijasko stoljeća
by T. 26/3/2020, 23:50
Ma glumci, svi ti dežurni ekonomski katastrofičari...AssadNaPodmornici wrote:T. wrote:Đabe ti je...
Mjeru su tu i moraju se poštivati...
Radi od kuće ili odmaraj kao svi normalni ljudi...
meni prvo bio žestoki stres, ali sada kada sam razmislio.. ovo odlična prilika za učenje nekih novih vještina, plus skoro svaki dan trčim/pumpam skelkove na otvorenom (hahah karantena my ass) ..taman do 1.5 ću se odmorit kao čovik..
na kraju ćemo imati i solidnu sezonu, jer napisao sam u par drugih postova, do 1.5 će skužit da je najbolje ili preći na švedski model ili sve odjebati, i onda će krenuti i turistička sezona itd.. malo će kasniti ali opet će biti OK
Da su na (ne daj bože) respiratoru, moš mislit šta bi im bilanca bila najvažnija stvar...
T.- Posts : 17078
2014-04-14
Age : 83
Re: Fijasko stoljeća
by Trinity 26/3/2020, 23:56
Tko ne bi pozdravio službenu naredbu za ljenčarenje? I još plaćenu?T. wrote:Đabe ti je...
Mjeru su tu i moraju se poštivati...
Radi od kuće ili odmaraj kao svi normalni ljudi...
A one koji hoće raditi treba sankcionirati.
Tko je tu stvarno lud?
Trinity-
Posts : 12923
2014-04-17
RayMabus- Posts : 175409
2014-04-11
Re: Fijasko stoljeća
by RayMabus 27/3/2020, 00:00
Pa radi ti , tko ti smeta ?Triny wrote:Tko ne bi pozdravio službenu naredbu za ljenčarenje? I još plaćenu?T. wrote:Đabe ti je...
Mjeru su tu i moraju se poštivati...
Radi od kuće ili odmaraj kao svi normalni ljudi...
A one koji hoće raditi treba sankcionirati.
Tko je tu stvarno lud?
https://www.novosti.rs/vesti/planeta.299.html:855483-Francuska-u-stopu-prati-Italiju-U-roku-od-24-casa-preminulo-365-ljudi-medju-njima-i-devojka-16
Pa pa Francuska
RayMabus- Posts : 175409
2014-04-11
Re: Fijasko stoljeća
by RayMabus 27/3/2020, 00:28
Ovo označeno plavom i tamnoplqvom bojom su države i općine u Americi koje su proglasile Ostani doma šemu.
Svaki put kad ovo neka država il općina proglasi Trump i ostali američki miljarderi gube miljone dolara.
Ne laje pas radi sela nego radi sebe ( Trump ).
Uživam gledati kako se kapitalizam samopojebava.
Svaki put kad ovo neka država il općina proglasi Trump i ostali američki miljarderi gube miljone dolara.
Ne laje pas radi sela nego radi sebe ( Trump ).
Uživam gledati kako se kapitalizam samopojebava.
RayMabus- Posts : 175409
2014-04-11
Re: Fijasko stoljeća
by Leviathan2 27/3/2020, 00:37
jbte longi, dosta vise, ovi vakseri ce se odlogat s foruma ak tako nastavis
od straha da im ne prejde koji virus :D
od straha da im ne prejde koji virus :D
_________________
Leviathan2-
Posts : 21431
2015-10-04
Lokacija: : Međurečje -
Re: Fijasko stoljeća
by RayMabus 27/3/2020, 00:41
Pa neće im ništa bit , 80% stanovništva ima blage simptome. Malo proljev i to je to. Panika nastaje jer stanovništvo nije imuno , nov je virus , zarazan je i kad nema simptome i onda kad se negdje pojavi ako ga ne spriječiš zdrma ti zdravstevi sustav i onda onih 20% umire po bolnicama.Leviathan2 wrote:jbte longi, dosta vise, ovi vakseri ce se odlogat s foruma ak tako nastavis
od straha da im ne prejde koji virus :D
RayMabus- Posts : 175409
2014-04-11
Re: Fijasko stoljeća
by Leviathan2 27/3/2020, 00:43
RayMabus wrote:Pa neće im ništa bit , 80% stanovništva ima blage simptome. Malo proljev i to je to. Panika nastaje jer stanovništvo nije imuno , nov je virus , zarazan je i kad nema simptome i onda kad se negdje pojavi ako ga ne spriječiš zdrma ti zdravstevi sustav i onda onih 20% umire po bolnicama.Leviathan2 wrote:jbte longi, dosta vise, ovi vakseri ce se odlogat s foruma ak tako nastavis
od straha da im ne prejde koji virus :D
to ti znas, al oni ne znaju, oni se baoje da cemo svi pomrijet
_________________
Leviathan2-
Posts : 21431
2015-10-04
Lokacija: : Međurečje -
Re: Fijasko stoljeća
by RayMabus 27/3/2020, 00:49
Problem je šta svi imaju nekog u toj rizičnoj skupini od 20% i onda se ni političarima ne igra s time da ne izgube fotelje. Zato ti je sad blokada i da se opskrbe bolnice a posli.....a ne može ekonomija bit u karanteni više od tri mjeseca ....očito. Tako su ti stvari postavljene.Leviathan2 wrote:RayMabus wrote:Pa neće im ništa bit , 80% stanovništva ima blage simptome. Malo proljev i to je to. Panika nastaje jer stanovništvo nije imuno , nov je virus , zarazan je i kad nema simptome i onda kad se negdje pojavi ako ga ne spriječiš zdrma ti zdravstevi sustav i onda onih 20% umire po bolnicama.Leviathan2 wrote:jbte longi, dosta vise, ovi vakseri ce se odlogat s foruma ak tako nastavis
od straha da im ne prejde koji virus :D
to ti znas, al oni ne znaju, oni se baoje da cemo svi pomrijet
RayMabus- Posts : 175409
2014-04-11
Re: Fijasko stoljeća
by Leviathan2 27/3/2020, 01:04
ima iza slike jos toga :DRayMabus wrote:Problem je šta svi imaju nekog u toj rizičnoj skupini od 20% i onda se ni političarima ne igra s time da ne izgube fotelje. Zato ti je sad blokada i da se opskrbe bolnice a posli.....a ne može ekonomija bit u karanteni više od tri mjeseca ....očito. Tako su ti stvari postavljene.Leviathan2 wrote:RayMabus wrote:Pa neće im ništa bit , 80% stanovništva ima blage simptome. Malo proljev i to je to. Panika nastaje jer stanovništvo nije imuno , nov je virus , zarazan je i kad nema simptome i onda kad se negdje pojavi ako ga ne spriječiš zdrma ti zdravstevi sustav i onda onih 20% umire po bolnicama.Leviathan2 wrote:jbte longi, dosta vise, ovi vakseri ce se odlogat s foruma ak tako nastavis
od straha da im ne prejde koji virus :D
to ti znas, al oni ne znaju, oni se baoje da cemo svi pomrijet
_________________
Leviathan2-
Posts : 21431
2015-10-04
Lokacija: : Međurečje -
Re: Fijasko stoljeća
by RayMabus 27/3/2020, 01:10
A čuj ima , farmaceutska industrija će zaradit bilione.Leviathan2 wrote:ima iza slike jos toga :DRayMabus wrote:Problem je šta svi imaju nekog u toj rizičnoj skupini od 20% i onda se ni političarima ne igra s time da ne izgube fotelje. Zato ti je sad blokada i da se opskrbe bolnice a posli.....a ne može ekonomija bit u karanteni više od tri mjeseca ....očito. Tako su ti stvari postavljene.Leviathan2 wrote:RayMabus wrote:Pa neće im ništa bit , 80% stanovništva ima blage simptome. Malo proljev i to je to. Panika nastaje jer stanovništvo nije imuno , nov je virus , zarazan je i kad nema simptome i onda kad se negdje pojavi ako ga ne spriječiš zdrma ti zdravstevi sustav i onda onih 20% umire po bolnicama.Leviathan2 wrote:jbte longi, dosta vise, ovi vakseri ce se odlogat s foruma ak tako nastavis
od straha da im ne prejde koji virus :D
to ti znas, al oni ne znaju, oni se baoje da cemo svi pomrijet
Al svejedno nitko normalan ne želi talijanski scenario i zato je sad rigorozno suzbijanje.
RayMabus- Posts : 175409
2014-04-11
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