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Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by Hektorović 9/3/2020, 07:52
https://www.ft.com/content/dab75720-618a-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68
Last edited by Hektorović on 9/3/2020, 07:54; edited 1 time in total
Hektorović- Posts : 26373
2018-04-10
Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by Hektorović 9/3/2020, 07:54
[size=34]Russia’s Defiance Sets the Stage for Oil Price ‘Bloodbath’[/size]
Moscow rejects OPEC’s effort to avert a coronavirus-driven price collapse, shutting down an agreement to cut crude output.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/06/russias-defiance-sets-the-stage-for-oil-price-bloodbath/
Hektorović- Posts : 26373
2018-04-10
Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by Hektorović 9/3/2020, 07:55
[size=48]Russia's stronger economy lets Putin stare down OPEC[/size]
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/6/russias-stronger-economy-lets-putin-stare-down-opec
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/6/russias-stronger-economy-lets-putin-stare-down-opec
Hektorović- Posts : 26373
2018-04-10
Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by Hektorović 9/3/2020, 07:56
MOSCOW (Bloomberg) --Vladimir Putin’s resistance to further output cuts has pushed Russia’s accord with the OPEC cartel that controls more than half of the world’s oil production toward breakdown. Some key metrics guiding the Russian economy help explain the president’s reasoning.
“Thanks to Russia taking harsh measures earlier, Russia can now afford a lower oil price than five to six years ago,” said Dmitry Dolgin, chief economist at ING Bank in Moscow.
Five years of austerity and safeguarding assets against the threat of U.S. sanctions have left Russia in a stronger position than ever before to cope with lower oil prices. Putin’s plans to increase spending this year can go ahead regardless and a weaker ruble will only help the country’s commodity exporters, which sell their goods in dollars.
Russia resisted pressure from allies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to make deeper production cuts at negotiations in Vienna that ended without a deal on Friday, saying it favors maintaining supply reductions at current levels until June. Saudi Arabia, the other major player in the OPEC+ talks, is pushing for a group cut of 1.5 million barrels a day.
International sanctions forced Russia to strip back foreign borrowing in recent years, while stringent fiscal policies pared domestic spending to a minimum. The result is that Russia now boasts the fourth-biggest international reserves in the world, and some of the lowest debt levels. Putin’s new government still has plenty of room to start increasing spending this year even if oil prices drop closer toward $40 a barrel.
Gone are the days when Russia needed oil prices of over $100 a barrel to balance its budget. A combination of spending cuts and revenue increases pursued since the 2015 oil price crash has pushed the break-even point for the budget down to $51 a barrel. Though oil prices breached that level earlier this month, the Finance Ministry can afford to take in a bit less given that the budget ran a surplus in the last two years.
Compared to other oil-exporting nations, Russia is in very good shape to cope with lower prices. Saudi Arabia, for instance, balances its budget at oil prices roughly double the level that Russia can cope with.
The ruble is down close to 10% so far this year, compared with a nearly 30% plunge for Brent crude, implying that the Russian currency is still overvalued. In the past the Kremlin has been content to keep the currency weak to boost revenues of commodity exporters, the driving force of the economy. Bloomberg Economics’s Scott Johnson warns though that a blow to the ruble could “undermine domestic demand just when more external shocks are on the way.”
“Thanks to Russia taking harsh measures earlier, Russia can now afford a lower oil price than five to six years ago,” said Dmitry Dolgin, chief economist at ING Bank in Moscow.
Five years of austerity and safeguarding assets against the threat of U.S. sanctions have left Russia in a stronger position than ever before to cope with lower oil prices. Putin’s plans to increase spending this year can go ahead regardless and a weaker ruble will only help the country’s commodity exporters, which sell their goods in dollars.
Russia resisted pressure from allies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to make deeper production cuts at negotiations in Vienna that ended without a deal on Friday, saying it favors maintaining supply reductions at current levels until June. Saudi Arabia, the other major player in the OPEC+ talks, is pushing for a group cut of 1.5 million barrels a day.
International sanctions forced Russia to strip back foreign borrowing in recent years, while stringent fiscal policies pared domestic spending to a minimum. The result is that Russia now boasts the fourth-biggest international reserves in the world, and some of the lowest debt levels. Putin’s new government still has plenty of room to start increasing spending this year even if oil prices drop closer toward $40 a barrel.
Gone are the days when Russia needed oil prices of over $100 a barrel to balance its budget. A combination of spending cuts and revenue increases pursued since the 2015 oil price crash has pushed the break-even point for the budget down to $51 a barrel. Though oil prices breached that level earlier this month, the Finance Ministry can afford to take in a bit less given that the budget ran a surplus in the last two years.
Compared to other oil-exporting nations, Russia is in very good shape to cope with lower prices. Saudi Arabia, for instance, balances its budget at oil prices roughly double the level that Russia can cope with.
The ruble is down close to 10% so far this year, compared with a nearly 30% plunge for Brent crude, implying that the Russian currency is still overvalued. In the past the Kremlin has been content to keep the currency weak to boost revenues of commodity exporters, the driving force of the economy. Bloomberg Economics’s Scott Johnson warns though that a blow to the ruble could “undermine domestic demand just when more external shocks are on the way.”
Hektorović- Posts : 26373
2018-04-10
Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by RayMabus 9/3/2020, 07:58
Zakon ponude i potražnje. Avioni su veliki potoršaći goriva i sad kad oni jednom stanu to se odma osjeti na potražnji i cijena pada.
https://www.seebiz.eu/tvrtke/alitalia-zbog-koronavirusa-otkazuje-sve-letove-iz-milana/226800
Ne brini se neće na pumpi past puno cijena , više od pola cijene goriva ti je porez pa tek onda troškovi prerade i ostalo i jedan dio toga ti je tek onda sama sirovina tj sirova nafta tj barel nafte.
https://www.seebiz.eu/tvrtke/alitalia-zbog-koronavirusa-otkazuje-sve-letove-iz-milana/226800
Ne brini se neće na pumpi past puno cijena , više od pola cijene goriva ti je porez pa tek onda troškovi prerade i ostalo i jedan dio toga ti je tek onda sama sirovina tj sirova nafta tj barel nafte.
RayMabus- Posts : 183865
2014-04-11
Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by Hektorović 9/3/2020, 08:17
Nije samo ponuda i potražnja, nego Rusija i Saudijska Arabija otvaraju pune kapacitete, upravo u trenutku najveće krize zadnjih godina
Ovo je igra da se potope američki proizvođači...
Ovo je igra da se potope američki proizvođači...
Hektorović- Posts : 26373
2018-04-10
Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by RayMabus 9/3/2020, 08:23
Čitam sad o tome :Hektorović wrote:Nije samo ponuda i potražnja, nego Rusija i Saudijska Arabija otvaraju pune kapacitete, upravo u trenutku najveće krize zadnjih godina
Ovo je igra da se potope američki proizvođači...
https://www.index.hr/mobile/clanak.aspx?category=vijesti&id=2163220
Nemam neko mišljenje.
RayMabus- Posts : 183865
2014-04-11
Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by RayMabus 9/3/2020, 08:47
Nije američka nafta najskuplja po proizvodnji nego ona s Artika ( led , niske temperature ) , iz Venezuele ( mulj , separacija ) te Kanada ( kamene naslage ) tako da neće Amerika prva ugasit proizvodnju nego ovi jer imaju najveće gubitke jer posluju u teškom minusu.
S druge strane gleda se udio zarade od nafte na državni proračun a niska cijena nafte udara ovdje najviše na Saudijsku Arabiju i druge zemlje kojima je nafta ogroman dio proračuna dakle opet to nije Amerika.
S druge strane gleda se udio zarade od nafte na državni proračun a niska cijena nafte udara ovdje najviše na Saudijsku Arabiju i druge zemlje kojima je nafta ogroman dio proračuna dakle opet to nije Amerika.
RayMabus- Posts : 183865
2014-04-11
Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by Eroo 9/3/2020, 09:47
barel $28-31. Može to i niže.
Barem jedna lijepa vijest.
Barem jedna lijepa vijest.
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Eroo- Posts : 78709
2016-07-22
Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by Leviathan2 9/3/2020, 10:56
i meni je palo na pamet, ovi iz frekinga na 50 dolara za barel su vec na gubitku, a zamisli na 30 dolara,Hektorović wrote:Nije samo ponuda i potražnja, nego Rusija i Saudijska Arabija otvaraju pune kapacitete, upravo u trenutku najveće krize zadnjih godina
Ovo je igra da se potope američki proizvođači...
_________________
Leviathan2-
Posts : 21431
2015-10-04
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Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by Leviathan2 9/3/2020, 10:57
prije koju godinu je putin izjavio da oni mogu radit i sa 20 dolara barel, pa si ti misli, jel mogu ameriRayMabus wrote:Nije američka nafta najskuplja po proizvodnji nego ona s Artika ( led , niske temperature ) , iz Venezuele ( mulj , separacija ) te Kanada ( kamene naslage ) tako da neće Amerika prva ugasit proizvodnju nego ovi jer imaju najveće gubitke jer posluju u teškom minusu.
S druge strane gleda se udio zarade od nafte na državni proračun a niska cijena nafte udara ovdje najviše na Saudijsku Arabiju i druge zemlje kojima je nafta ogroman dio proračuna dakle opet to nije Amerika.
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Leviathan2-
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2015-10-04
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Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by Leviathan2 9/3/2020, 10:58
posto u sloveniji gorivoEroo wrote:barel $28-31. Može to i niže.
Barem jedna lijepa vijest.
_________________
Leviathan2-
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Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by Eroo 9/3/2020, 11:16
Plaćam s karticom tako da nemam pojma.Leviathan2 wrote:posto u sloveniji gorivoEroo wrote:barel $28-31. Može to i niže.
Barem jedna lijepa vijest.
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Nulla rosa sine spina
Eroo- Posts : 78709
2016-07-22
Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by Eroo 9/3/2020, 11:18
Neozbiljno, za nekoga tko 80% proračuna puni prodajom nafte i plina.Leviathan2 wrote:prije koju godinu je putin izjavio da oni mogu radit i sa 20 dolara barel, pa si ti misli, jel mogu ameriRayMabus wrote:Nije američka nafta najskuplja po proizvodnji nego ona s Artika ( led , niske temperature ) , iz Venezuele ( mulj , separacija ) te Kanada ( kamene naslage ) tako da neće Amerika prva ugasit proizvodnju nego ovi jer imaju najveće gubitke jer posluju u teškom minusu.
S druge strane gleda se udio zarade od nafte na državni proračun a niska cijena nafte udara ovdje najviše na Saudijsku Arabiju i druge zemlje kojima je nafta ogroman dio proračuna dakle opet to nije Amerika.
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Nulla rosa sine spina
Eroo- Posts : 78709
2016-07-22
Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by AlfaOmega 9/3/2020, 12:15
Američka naftna industrija ode u p.m. A taman ih bilo krinulo. Nemreš ti s Velemajstorom.
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AlfaOmega- Posts : 10378
2015-09-11
Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by veber 9/3/2020, 12:23
i kao past će cijena goriva?
kada je ono ćaća izjavio da će branit 7kn uz cijenu od 40usd.
kada je ono ćaća izjavio da će branit 7kn uz cijenu od 40usd.
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veber-
Posts : 53509
2014-12-30
Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by Ringo10 9/3/2020, 13:59
Udio nafte i gasa u GDP je manji od 10%Eroo wrote:Neozbiljno, za nekoga tko 80% proračuna puni prodajom nafte i plina.Leviathan2 wrote:prije koju godinu je putin izjavio da oni mogu radit i sa 20 dolara barel, pa si ti misli, jel mogu ameriRayMabus wrote:Nije američka nafta najskuplja po proizvodnji nego ona s Artika ( led , niske temperature ) , iz Venezuele ( mulj , separacija ) te Kanada ( kamene naslage ) tako da neće Amerika prva ugasit proizvodnju nego ovi jer imaju najveće gubitke jer posluju u teškom minusu.
S druge strane gleda se udio zarade od nafte na državni proračun a niska cijena nafte udara ovdje najviše na Saudijsku Arabiju i druge zemlje kojima je nafta ogroman dio proračuna dakle opet to nije Amerika.
U državnom proračunu ove godine će NON-OIL and GAS udio biti oko 63.3%
Da, još uvijek ovise o tome, ali taj procenat se smanjuje iz godine u godinu.
Ringo10- Posts : 21667
2015-09-24
Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by Ringo10 9/3/2020, 14:03
Ma nafta BRENT će se svakako vratiti na oko 42 dolara po barelu. Toliko je ove godine ruski državni proračun projiciran, na cijeni nafte od $42.4.AlfaOmega wrote:Američka naftna industrija ode u p.m. A taman ih bilo krinulo. Nemreš ti s Velemajstorom.
Cijen u od $30 mogu izdržati najmanje 6 godina, kako reče Siluanov iako bi im bio potreban određeni rebalans proračuna. To bi izazvalo trajnu deprecijaciju Rublje ali ne previše.
Inače, neki dan gledam na rusjkoj TV, oni se polako ali sigurno oslobađaju ovisnosti o nafti i gasu.
Pa sad, vidjet ćemo ...
Ringo10- Posts : 21667
2015-09-24
Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by Leviathan2 9/3/2020, 14:58
gdje si to procitao jebateEroo wrote:Neozbiljno, za nekoga tko 80% proračuna puni prodajom nafte i plina.Leviathan2 wrote:prije koju godinu je putin izjavio da oni mogu radit i sa 20 dolara barel, pa si ti misli, jel mogu ameriRayMabus wrote:Nije američka nafta najskuplja po proizvodnji nego ona s Artika ( led , niske temperature ) , iz Venezuele ( mulj , separacija ) te Kanada ( kamene naslage ) tako da neće Amerika prva ugasit proizvodnju nego ovi jer imaju najveće gubitke jer posluju u teškom minusu.
S druge strane gleda se udio zarade od nafte na državni proračun a niska cijena nafte udara ovdje najviše na Saudijsku Arabiju i druge zemlje kojima je nafta ogroman dio proračuna dakle opet to nije Amerika.
il imas podatke iz jelcinova doba
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Re: Putin objavio energetski rat: Nafta pala 30% u zadnja 24 sata
by Eroo 9/3/2020, 15:01
I nije Putin objavio energentski rat već Saudova Arabija povećanjem proizvodnje.
Ovaj pad cijene nafte za njih ne znači ništa, a za Rusiju je katastrofa.
Ostavite se navijanja vi iznad.
Ovaj pad cijene nafte za njih ne znači ništa, a za Rusiju je katastrofa.
Ostavite se navijanja vi iznad.
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Eroo- Posts : 78709
2016-07-22
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