"Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic"

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Post by Legendovich on 22/5/2020, 09:14

By TORSTEN GROß | In the Corona-crisis, governments new debt-financed aid packages to put in an astronomical amount in order to prevent an economic crash and mass unemployment. A former Economist at the US Bank JPMorgan Chase, has insider knowledge and therefore anonymous would like to stay, warns against a Hyperinflation, like it was last updated in the twenties of the last century, in the Weimar Republic.
In 1914, the Reich's government had abolished the current gold standard to the cost of the in the same year, the outbreak of the First world war via the printing press to Finance. The massive expansion of the money supply, which was continued to the end of the war, to support the reparation demands of the victorious powers, led coupled with war-related goods shortages to a significant increase in prices.
The Inflation reached in October, 1923, with 29.525 percent of its peak before the currency reform, the month ended on the haunting. Until then, the income and savings had been devalued of millions of citizens already.
A majority of the German middle class found in the poverty, which was the political germ of the later rise of the national socialists. Winner owners of real assets like Gold and real estate, especially those who had financed the purchase of houses or property with loans. Your debt disappeared virtually overnight in the.
The scenario of a Hyperinflation threatens, in the opinion of the analysts now in the USA, and thus also in the Rest of the world.
In order to cope with the consequences of the financial and economic crisis began, the Central banks starting in 2008, a period of extremely loose monetary policy, which continues to this day.
Low interest rates and massive bond purchases have triggered a wave of Liquidity and investors prompted a growing risk to the capital markets to achieve returns. The series of new price records were in all asset classes. Could benefit, especially stocks and real estate, and also Gold. It had formed a bubble that burst in the Corona of a pandemic, where the Virus is only the trigger. The actual causes are "out-of-control credit-ratings, debt-financed balance sheets, share buybacks, an expansionary monetary policy and, as a result of out-of-control credit and debt".
Far-sighted experts in Germany, Dr. Markus Krall and Dr. Max Otte have been for a long time on the Problem of the extremely fragile financial markets. And you have in front of a "Black Swan," warned of an unexpected, serious event that the house of cards to collapse will bring. With COVID-19 is this "Black Swan" now!
After the Bursting of the bubble in the Financial markets, a bankruptcy wave will initially hit the energy sector, the former JPMorgan threatened staff. What is meant here is mainly in the U.S., significant Oil and fracking industry, which suffers from the now lower Oil prices enormously and the will shrink due to falling demand in the world's economic crisis. Because of the massive rise in unemployment, private consumption collapses, the approximately 70 percent of the American gross domestic product contributes, will come next, the retail trade and the hospitality industry under the wheels.
Due to the growing number of bankruptcies and associated credit default banks ran into financial difficulties, including systemically important money houses. The policy is then faced with the decision, these financial institutions can either go under like Lehman Brothers in 2008, or to save billions of taxpayers ' money. You'll opt for the second Alternative, in order to prevent the total economic collapse and "to keep the unemployment in check", that is to say, the risk of social unrest is to ban. Also, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will purchases with massive value paper, and a new flood of Liquidity, contribute to a great surge of bankruptcies in the United States to avert.
Your balance sheet total is expected to rise, therefore, until the end of 2021 to approximately $ 12 trillion. In addition, there could be cuts later this year to further interest or even negative interest rates in the United States, the US President, Trump having regard to the monetary policy of the European Central Bank has already for some time, vehemently calls for.
But the rescue of banks and the economy with the help of huge cash infusions, and advance aid packages that the us Central Bank gives up your goal is to keep the price increase in the United States in check.
"The political decision-makers running behind the events, and have obviously learned from the years of 2008/2009, nothing. Your last way out is the Printing of money and the creation of further debt. If the Central banks have no or a fluffy target for inflation, to taxes, we have Inflation in the style of the Weimar Republic",
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the former JPMorgan Analyst warns. The flood of money, in contrast to the last decade, not only asset prices but also the prices of consumer goods to the top drive, lying at the same or even declining global production and a slowdown in world trade. The so-reduced range of goods to meet on a circulation of money, the will, through increased aid for the needy population in the Form of social benefits or of an unconditional basic income is multiplied.
It was therefore only a matter of time until the Inflation spiral out of control, what could happen very suddenly and unexpectedly.
The expert also assumes that the policy will extend the mandate of the American Central Bank, the Fed can no longer buy corporate bonds, or as collateral to accept, but also stocks and shares may purchase Fund.

The Central Bank would then have the ability to stabilize due to the increased purchase of securities, the asset prices in the financial markets, for the benefit of the owners of Capital benefit.
Since shopping is the Central Bank, but only gradually in the market, it is likely to come in the short term, to a further slump in the rates.
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"Nothing has improved fundamentally, with the exception of the emergency supply of Liquidity by the Central banks. You expect a new crash until the end of the year – the lows of March will not be tested – because the Fed perfidious way still has enough corporate bonds/shares, to control the asset prices!"
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Investors, the Economist recommends to diversify your portfolio broadly and inflation-resistant to be in favour of duck plants, in order to protect your assets in the coming Hyperinflation. The expert is, moreover, to assume that the Central banks will in the medium term, have a large part of the cross-sector corporate bonds and equities. This should stabilize the prices of these securities during the crisis and a Crash in the financial markets, prevent.


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Legendovich
Legendovich

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Post by T. on 22/5/2020, 10:58

njemačko ekonomsko čudo nije ono nakon 2. svj. rata kada su tzv. saveznici ulupali milijarde u obnovu njemačkog gospodarstva, već ono prije 2. svj. rata...
hjalmar schacht je tu odigrao presudnu ulogu, kao predsjednik reichsbanke te ministar gospodarstva odnosno ekonomije...
T.
T.

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2014-04-14

Age : 79

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Post by Legendovich on 22/5/2020, 19:10

@T. wrote:njemačko ekonomsko čudo nije ono nakon 2. svj. rata kada su tzv. saveznici ulupali milijarde u obnovu njemačkog gospodarstva, već ono prije 2. svj. rata...
hjalmar schacht je tu odigrao presudnu ulogu, kao predsjednik reichsbanke te ministar gospodarstva odnosno ekonomije...
aj..sto si skrt,napisi nesto vise..

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